Category: Venue Management

Jeremy dives into the nuances of managing live entertainment venues.

Are We Facing a Post-Pandemic Concert Venue Consolidation?

Jeremy Larochelle

 

Small concert venues teeter the line between a vital music industry need and a profitability challenge for their owners. They are a keystone to the entire music industry serving as the laboratories where artists hone their skills and are instrumental in building and empowering fan bases that will help push that talent up the pipeline to bigger spaces. Yet they operate within a risky business model that is loaded with unpredictability due to the status of the artists they support and the caps on their income streams.

 

There is no doubt that the major live event brands such as Live Nation and AEG understand the vital importance of smaller venues for their long-term strategy. They need these establishments to survive so future superstars and their fan bases can be cultivated to the point that they can fill their larger (and more profitable) amphitheaters and stadiums. Before the pandemic hit, Live Nation was on a $20 million-plus spending spree in Southern California including the acquisition of Spaceland Presents and their roster of small venues such as Echoplex, the Echo, and the Regent. Pre-COVID, both AEG and Live Nation were actively shopping the smaller cap space with every tool at their disposal.  Their strategies included buying out smaller promoters, partnering with established venues, exclusive promotion deals, and perhaps the most strategic.  Selling and installing their ticketing services into these independent venues, which not only provides the majors with revenue but a treasure trove of data to help focus their future investment decisions.

 

Most independent owners will tell you they do this for the love of music and when you analyze their basic business model. You will quickly surmise they aren’t lying. Profitability is difficult in the under 1,000 cap space. The smaller audience size means that the fixed cost per person is higher. This impinges on the variable costs per customer and leads to reduced profitability per show. Add in the fact that the acts at this level are still building their fan bases and owners face the very real possibility that they will not reach 100% occupancy on a regular basis. This lack of regular profitability leads to less money in reserves for slower times and very little protection from systematic risk such as a pandemic that forces them to close down indefinitely.   We have been witnessing this playout since COVID hit. By June of 2020, 90% of Independent Venue Owners said they would need to close within a few months without government help to sustain their businesses. Many are ecstatic that the US Government could provide much-needed relief soon, but this help may (unfortunately) be too little too late. Especially if there are no further rounds of funding coming down the pike.

 

Smaller cap venues simply do not have the economic resources to support reduced capacity, increased testing and sanitization protocols, state and local shutdowns, and weary public. Unfortunately, this means that we will likely continue to see many of these spaces shutter their doors into 2022, and while that is bad news for fans, independent owners, and the free market. It is a HUGE opportunity for well-positioned majors such as Live Nation and AEG.

 

In the words of Baron Rothschild, “buy when there is blood in the streets.” Unfortunately for the live concert industry, very few are positioned to heed the Baron’s advice. Both Live Nation and AEG have the infrastructure and financial reserves to withstand the COVID pandemic. While LN has a serious advantage thanks to their stock market status. A public company can secure financing through numerous debt instruments outside of typical lenders such as selling bonds or by releasing more shares. They can also renegotiate existing loans more easily thanks to their massive liquidity and the horizon-focused mindset of their investors.

 

Both companies have already reduced their workforce and cut spending at unprecedented rates due to the pandemic. And while this is difficult to swallow now, it does pose the opportunity for them to return to service much leaner and potentially free up capital to allocate towards future growth in the strategically important small-cap market. Add in the fact that both have troves of ticketing data which can be cross-analyzed against economic stricken hotspots, prime tour markets, and real estate prices and we are left with a large probability for future consolidation of the small-cap venue market.

 

There are a few saving graces for independent venue owners.  One is the creation of the National Independent Venue Association (NIVA). This organization burst onto the scene and was key in lobbying the US Congress for relief.  They will need to remain vigilant post-COVID and shift their focus from relief to the defense of a free market for the live music industry. Another comes in those with a true passion for live music.  Be it owners, managers, fans, or even leaders at the helm of these majors. We need people who understand that music was never meant to be corporate. It was meant to be raw, emotional, messy, and a little bit scary.  Only then will the magic present itself.

 

Judge Judy – A Demo in Audience Compounding

Jeremy Larochelle

 

My mom is a HUGE Judge Judy fan and I will admit it, so am I.  However, we are fans for different reasons. My mom likes seeing someone her height take control of a situation. While I admire what the 5′ 1″ judge has done in creating a powerful global brand through the concept of audience compounding.

 

In fact, I admire her so much that I have created the Judge Judy Principle in regard to how venues can craft a loyal customer following. It works like this.

 

People are creatures of habit. Our brains have to process so much data each day, that the organ is constantly looking for things it can place on autopilot. This is where habits kick in. We habitually take the same route to work. We instinctively pick-up the same toothpaste without considering dozens of other brands. And for many of us, like Pavlov’s dog, we instantly check our messages when we hear that “ding” from our phones. This is a core part of consumer behavior and many of the top brands seek to utilize it to get their products and services into our auto-consumption routines.

 

Basically, brands need two things to break into our habits. One, they must always be where we would expect them to be and two, they need to give us the same quality product every time. Judge Judy has been doing this since 1996 and is reaping the rewards.

 

She has been on the air for 23 seasons and has remained in the same afternoon slot (roughly 3 pm – 5 pm) for that entire time. This is key to habit-forming because her fans know where they can get their Judy fix anywhere in the country with little effort. Second, her product is always the same. Her intro music and logo don’t change. She wears the same robe. The program is always filmed in the same courtroom – they never go anywhere special. Her bailiff, Byrd, always announces her and the case before jumping into a crossword puzzle. This is the second key to her success – she gives her audience the same quality product at each interaction. This prevents people from becoming confused and continually reinforces their positive stimuli response, which strengthens their tie to the habit and feeds the viewership cycle. It also explains why Judge Judy has a fan base of 10 million-plus every weekday and has been the number one syndicated daytime show since 1998. So, how does this apply to the booking of entertainment venues?

 

Judge Judy’s success is a testament to the importance of establishing a long-term booking strategy and sticking with it. Before the internet, iPhones, social media and streaming, entertainment consumers had fewer options so the onus was on them to seek out their choice of leisure. Technology has shifted this behavior. Consumers now have access to countless opportunities with little cost of engagement such as streaming music on Spotify, viewing videos on TikTok, or binging a whole TV season on Netflix.

 

Talent buyers and venue bookers must consider consistency in their programming as a way to counteract this challenge. Since the consumer’s cost to see live entertainment is more than, say, streaming Hulu at home, they are in a vulnerable position. And if you operate in a highly competitive live market these “on the fence” consumers have a multitude of options at their disposal as well. This means that anything you do that confuses them could become detrimental to your operations.

 

This doesn’t mean you need to book the same act each night, but your calendar should be consistent in one way or another. You can hold tight to theme nights such as Latin on Sundays, Karaoke on Wednesdays, and Pop on Fridays. Or you can book one style of entertainment such as an open format DJ regularly. The key is sticking with your decision once your A/B booking testing is complete (more on that later). This will mitigate the fan’s choice apprehension.

 

It will also fuel an audience compounding strategy that works like this. A customer arrives and digs your vibe, so they come back. If you are consistent and reinforce their stimuli response, they will stay along with the next patron who visits, likes what they see, and decides to come back a second time as well. Over time you will build a core group of promoters for the brand. This will lead to an adoption tipping point that is regularly hit, which will speed the time it takes to fill the venue.

 

However, if you change your entertainment too often you risk confusing and alienating the customers you have gained. In essence, you will start the whole process over and it will take longer for you to pack the house. Think of it like your 401(k). You put in money consistently every month. Later, you reap rewards with very little effort on your part. However, if you pull money out early it takes longer for those checks to cash. This is why Judge Judy is so successful. She has a solid brand that has delivered a similar quality product consistently for 23 seasons and has reaped the benefits of audience compounding in the process.

 

If you would like to learn more please reach out to me at [email protected] or call me at ‭(602) 842-2050‬.

 

 

 

 

The Power of a Venue Pull Marketing Strategy

Jeremy Larochelle

 

You may be surprised to learn that all of the ads you encounter each day aren’t just to get YOU to purchase products. While this is a majority of the brand’s intent, there is an additional hidden agenda and it comes in the form of a pull marketing strategy.

 

According to the Corporate Finance Institute. “In a pull marketing strategy, the goal is to make a consumer actively seek a product and get retailers to stock the product due to direct consumer demand.” For instance, if Doritos intends to launch a new flavor of chip. Retailers may be apprehensive of allocating valuable shelf space to the product. To mitigate this risk and get them to stock their new offering, Frito-Lay may introduce a pull marketing strategy to build awareness of the new flavor, increase demand, and pull consumers to the new product, forcing retailers to place orders for the flavor.

 

The same can happen in the concert venue world in various strategic ways. One approach is the fan perspective where the venue establishes its brand in a way that pulls specific consumers through the doors to experience the ambiance and /or notoriety. This is the case with legacy spaces such as The Greek Theater, Red Rocks, The Ryman, Madison Square Garden, and The Gorge. Another is to focus on a specific segment. The Bowery Presents does this with their chain of venues that focus on indie and up-and-coming rockers.

 

There is also a pull strategy that can be established by homing in on the talent. In this method, management focuses on enhancing the act’s experience to pull them towards their stage over other routing options.

 

Ryan Murphy did just that with St. Augustine’s The Amp by crafting a positive environment for acts that visited the out-of-the-way outdoor venue. His efforts soon paid off when legend Tony Bennett’s positive experience was relayed to Stevie Nick’s team. This led to a one-off solo show for the Fleetwood Mac star. Soon, The Amp was playing host to names much larger than its capacity.  Kacey Musgraves, who packs the 20,000 seat Bridgestone Arena, legends such as Robert Plant, OAR, Willie Nelson, and Kendrick Lamar made their way to St. Augustine, FL. Helping push The Amp to the #2 amphitheater spot in Pollstar Magazine’s 2019 Mid-Year report.

 

Not too shabby for a venue with a capacity of under 5,000 and well off the routing path.

 

Murphy’s pull strategy circumvented outside variables by going direct to the source of the commodity – the artist. Their handlers very likely were pushing for larger capacity venues that could provide more revenue, more wiggle room on deal points, more efficient routing, etc. Unfortunately, many venue leaders do not understand the rigors of the road and how it impacts artists of every level and, perhaps more importantly, their crew. Giving them a special spot that has a unique vibe, history, and a feel of home can have much more power than we think. It’s not just a pull marketing strategy… it’s a compassion for the artist strategy and it can pay large dividends as Murphy and The Amp proved.

The Ancillary Dangers of an 18 Plus Club

Jeremy Larochelle

 

In a previous post, I explained the vital importance of ancillary income for your club or venue.  This income stream covers everything non-ticketed such as VIP, lawn chairs, bottle service, merchandise, food, and beverages. You can only sell your customer one ticket but multiple ancillary units. This makes the latter a key component of your venue’s profitability.

 

That is unless you unknowingly fix them.

 

Let’s take a hypothetical club that holds 1,000 people and assume that each person pays $20 to get into the facility. This leads to $20,000 in income.  Let’s also assume that the venue only sells the ancillary value stream of alcohol. Now let’s look at two scenarios.

 

Scenario One – 21 plus only club:

In this scenario, you only allow persons 21 and older into the venue. For simplicity, let’s say 80% of those patrons drink and the average drink costs $10. This leads to an additional $8,000 in income for your venue. If you have one show per week, this leads to an additional $416,000 per year.

 

Scenario Two – 18 plus club: 

In this scenario, you have a mix of 50% persons aged 18-20 and 50% persons aged 21 and older. Using the same assumptions above, we now have 80% from only 500 fans buying drinks. This has cut our ancillary income in half to $4,000 per night or only $208,000 per year.

You just “fixed” your ancillary sales and unknowingly cut your additional profitability in half. If you continue this trend, you do so further reducing your daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly profit. A 75% underage to 25% drinking age mix leads to only $2,000 per night of ancillary income, which is just $104,000 per year. You are leaving $312,000 on the table.

 

Hopefully, these numbers demonstrate the importance of understanding how your ancillary revenue stream relates to your customer mix. With this understanding, you can now look for ways to adjust these variables in favor of profitability. Here are a few options for the scenario above.

 

Adjust the Customer Mix: This starts with understanding your market demand and business objectives. If alcohol is a main ancillary driver and your market has a healthy collection of 21 plus patrons to pull from, simply making your club 21 and older might be the best option. Otherwise, you will have to put in place ticketing and operational procedures that limit the non-drinking age patrons to an established percentage or adjust one of the other variables to make up the difference.

 

Add Additional Revenue Streams: Introduce non-restrictive ancillary options such as VIP, food, and merchandise options that appeal to your underage clients.

 

Pricing Strategy: Charge the 18-20 year-olds a higher entrance fee to counteract the loss you will incur from their lack of ancillary purchases. The best way to do this is to look at your historic bar sales to establish a baseline for the number of drinks purchased per each patron. If you find this to be two drinks per person, then you need to tack on a premium of $20 per ticket (based on the assumptions above) for each underage patron.

 

The key is to remember that you are in business to maximize your shareholder wealth and that venue profit potential is fixed by its capacity. For every underage patron you let in, you cannot let in a legal drinking age fan who would (most likely) contribute to additional income for your business. As a manager, it is your responsibility to find ways to maximize the profit potential by controlling your customer mix, your products offered, and your pricing strategies.

 

The Power of Queueing Theory for The Concert Venue

Jeremy Larochelle

Photo by Krizjohn Rosales from Pexels

 

In a recent post, I stated: “5,000 plus people trying to enter through less than four security lines is a safety concern in my opinion.” I want to use this post to help explain that statement and why I believe it.

 

I am fascinated by the science of management and even though the business of rock and roll may seem anything but. Venue operations math can help us develop ways to enhance the concert experience for fans, artists, and venue owners. One of these concepts is through the use of queuing theory.

 

Queuing theory is the mathematical study of waiting lines or queues. The formula may appear complex. However, there are a number of calculators online that will help you get the answers you need without understanding some pretty heady math that looks something like this from Portland State University.

 

 

Let’s move past these formulas and focus on how this can apply to your concert venue operations.

 

Part of the concert customer’s experience is entering the venue. This includes driving to the property, finding parking, and then going through security to gain entrance to the facility. This last element (security screening and entering the facility) present a unique challenge in that the operations team must weigh the customer experience of waiting in line against the demands of the security team to properly vet each patron. Part of establishing that balance is pinpointing how many security lanes you need per: (1) the venue capacity; (2) the arrival rate of guests; (3) the average security screen time; and (4) the cost of “x” amount of lanes, which can include equipment, such as screeners, and personnel.

 

You could achieve these results by speculating but guessing wrong could impact your operations in a few ways. For instance, your fans would likely end up waiting in line too long if you are underequipped. This could lead to lost consumer confidence and ultimately dipping revenues as word spreads about this negative aspect of the fan experience you provide. On the other hand, over equipping can lead to increased overhead and less profitability for the venue. Another unsustainable outcome. Luckily, there is a baseline to be found for virtually any venue and it is attained through a queuing theory calculation.

 

Let’s say that your venue’s capacity is 5,000. You open doors two hours before the show and a VIP lane an hour before that. You also know that a good chunk of your fans do not make it in on time due to traffic, family emergencies, etc. Taken together, you can estimate it would take four hours for the bulk of your customers to get through the gates. Your security team ensures that they can vet the average patron in 45 seconds or less and your observations say they are correct. Let’s place this information into our online queuing theory calculator.

 

We start by selecting the M/M/C model for a single queue with “C” amount of servers. Next, we need to average the number of people coming in per hour. To keep things simple, we will stick with a discrete probability. This means that we just divide 5,000 people by four hours, which is 1,250 patrons coming through the gates per hour. That is highly unlikely, but at this point, we are just looking for a baseline. We can adjust per our observations at a later time.

 

Place 1,250 under Arrivals/ Hour, which is Lambda in the calculator. Since your security team estimated they can vet each person in 45 seconds, that equates to 80 patrons per hour. Place 80 under Services/Hour, which is Mu.

 

Now let’s pick security lanes. Place four under the Number of Servers (C) and click Calculate. You will receive the following warning. “The queues will tend to infinity as Lambda is greater or equal than 4 times Mu.” This is telling us that you do not have enough servers to operate efficiently. It is NOT telling you it can’t be done. Rather, it is saying that there will be a back-up of the line. Remember, we are looking for a balance between customer experience, safety, and cost from which to start our ops planning. Further trial and error by selecting servers reveal that the optimal number of lanes is 16 based on these variables. At this level, your customer would walk directly into one of those lanes and spend (on average) 1.782 minutes waiting in line and another 45 seconds being screened. For a total service time just shy of three minutes. That is where you find the best customer experience at the lowest operations cost for a safe entrance into your venue.

 

Remember, this is your starting point. It is not saying anything less than 16 lanes for this size venue will fail. Rather, it is telling us that any number of security screeners below that will lead to a back-up of your line. I used a more advanced Excel calculator to find the average time your customer would wait if you only had four open lanes and found it to be between 27 and 30 minutes. This gives us a window. At four lanes, your customer could wait a half hour to get in while 16 lanes could lead to a zero wait time for the majority of your guests.

 

It is now up to you and your team to determine the balance between how long you want those customers to wait against the cost and logistics of adding more lanes. To do this you must take into account the price of additional screening stations (equipment and manpower) and if you have enough entrance points to accommodate their use. You could then analyze your open doors’ timeframe and how the line flows. Do more people come in at a certain time? Do you find that a large percentage of your clientele do not make it before the show? Finally, you could survey your customers about their experience. Did they have an issue waiting in line longer than 10, 15, 20, or 30 minutes? With this additional data, you are now more equipped to strike a balance between cost, customer experience, and the safety of your guests.

 

It all starts with queuing theory.

Don’t Overwhelm Venue Security with a Mismanaged Queue

Jeremy Larochelle2 Comments

 

Let’s face it.  We live in a radically different world where large groups have become targets for people with nefarious intent. As someone who not only works in live entertainment but spends his free time attending countless shows, I keep my head on a swivel around any crowd.  I watch for people demonstrating behaviors “outside the norm” such as loaners in places they shouldn’t be, excessive alpha-male behavior, and individuals who look extremely nervous or agitated. Once inside any venue, I seek out escape routes and tell my friends, where to meet, should we get separated if something happens.

 

One of the things that scare the hell out of me is when I watch ill-prepared operations teams mismanage patrons entering a venue. Here are a few examples I have witnessed in the past twelve months.

 

  • At one venue, patrons were let through security but the doors were not open yet. This led to a bottleneck between the security screening station and the doors. The team continued to push guests into this bottleneck, which led to the scanners misfiring. Rather than pausing the line, security screeners allowed patrons to enter without adequate checks in place.
  • At another concert, I walked through the metal detector. It went off and the person just looked at me and waved me through with no additional measures.
  • At a third show, I put all of my belongings inside my hat and placed the package in one of the plastic bins. A security guard simply looked down and slid my items through checkout without further analysis.

 

All of these situations shared a commonality – the entrance team was ill-prepared for the mass of people coming into the venue. Each team lacked one or more of the following elements: (1) not enough entrance lanes; (2) no senior team members directing employees on how to handle the influx; (3) employees capable of communicating to large masses of people; (4) improper queue set-up and direction. Let’s dive into each element.

 

Not enough entrance points: 5,000 plus people trying to enter through less than four security lines is a safety concern in my opinion. Even if your queues are properly set-up, your patrons informed of the security protocols ahead of time via email and social media, and your security team well trained. Employees get overwhelmed in these situations. I have yet to meet anyone who is 100% comfortable dealing with 5,000 people. Much less that many in the one to two hours before a show. When people get overwhelmed, they stop thinking rationally and the brain looks to reduce that pressure. This can lead to a bad decision to speed-up the vetting process and put everyone at risk.

 

No senior team members directing employees on how to handle the influx: The concert experience is best looked at in three phases – ingress, show, egress. Leadership must learn to allocate the proper amount of people for each phase. To do this, managers must be available to assess and allocate resources “on-the-fly.”

 

Employees who are capable of communicating to large masses of people: I see it time and time again. There are just one or two employees at the entrance of a show. They act reserved and operate from a “responsive” position waiting for customers to ask them questions. These individuals need to work from a mass-communication standpoint by proactively vocalizing to the crowd where the lanes start. Where the VIP entrance is. To have their tickets ready on their mobile devices, etc. When asked questions from confused guests, these employees need to be trained to answer quickly and efficiently so they can return to repeating the rules to the mass entering the facility.

 

Improper queue set-up and direction: If possible, queues should be set up as straight as possible. Try creating distance between the end of the queue and the screening area. You can do this by leaving space between the stanchions and the screener’s table or by adding a second table to create more space. This will craft a barrier between the queue and the screening personnel, help them feel less overwhelmed by the crowd, and mitigate scanner misfires. Signs for lane entrances should be placed overhead (about seven-plus feet) so guests can see where to go from a distance. Finally, your queue team should be proactive in directing people into open lanes to create efficient traffic flow.

 

Talk to your team after the show to understand what they felt what went right… what went wrong… and what could be done better for the next time. Take the extra time to speak with your security team. Find out if they felt overwhelmed and if they had adequate time to vet patrons entering the facility. Finally, survey your customers about their experience. You want both your employees and guests to feel safe and secure, so they can rock out with you for years to come.